Peter Murmann writes: For two decades I wanted to get a good estimate of how the number of distinct products have grown in the economy. Once I thought I could simply use bar codes that have been attached to products for over decades but that tack proved a dead end. Today it asked two LLMs this question: “Can you provide estimate of the total number of products and services that are offered all over the world.” Claude answered: “The count would certainly be in the billions and possibly reaching into the tens of billions when including every variant, regional offering, and service permutation available worldwide.” The Amazon marketplace according to Claude has 300 to 600 million products. ChatGPT 4o was much more conservative put the total number at 100 million products. It also produced this graph show that the number of products and services has been growing exponentially.
We are sad to announce that Richard R. Nelson has passed away. Here is an obituary that the International Schumpeter Society sent out.
One out of 22,222 firms listed on the stock market will survive as an independent entity for 100 years.
Most firms (45%) disappear from the stock market because of mergers or acquisitions.
Source: Daepp, M.I.G., Hamilton, M.J., West, G.B., Bettencourt, L.M.A. (2015) The mortality of companies. Journal of The Royal Society Interface 12, 20150120.
Richard Nelson and Sidney Winter have been listed by the French Magazine Sciences Humaines among to top 100 economists of all time. You can read here (in French) how the magazine portrays Nelson and Winter’s intellectual contributions. Nelson and Winter’s Ideas. English translation
Chris McKenna has shot a beautiful 5-min video introducing students what they will learn in a business history he runs at Oxford using Oxford and its environment as the material to be studied in the course. The chief assignment is to write a case that later can be used in class by other students. We highly recommend watching this video.
Sid Winter talks with Knowledge@Wharton about his new book on “history friendly evolutionary models”, which he co-authored with Franco Malerba, Richard Nelson, and Luigo Orsenigo. The book deals with the interactions between innovation and industry evolution. Winter gives a quick introduction to evolutionary economics and the scientific value of history-friendly simulations models. Read the transcript or listen to podcast here.
Two important books on the American corporation have been written by Gerald Davis and Mark Mizruchi. They are reviewed by a very thoughtful essay by Braydon King in Contemporary Sociology and by Bruce Kogut in a shorter piece in ASQ.
This Management of Organization Review (MOR) special issue (edited by Suresh Bhagavatula, Ram Mudambi and Johann Peter Murmann) aims to explore the key features of the innovation and entrepreneurship eco-system in India. The objective of this Management and Organization Review (MOR) special issue is to explore the many dimensions of how the innovation and entrepreneurship eco-system of India. For details see, Call for Papers.
Robert Gordon has written an important new book in which is spells out his detailed arguments why he expects American economic growth never to reach the levels achieved before 1970. Here are links to useful reviews of the book:
1. Economist
Building on the success of the first conference in Honk Kong, Management and Organization Review(MOR) will hold the 2nd frontier’s conference in Peking,China, October 5–7, 2016, and in Banglore, India, October 13–15, 2016. The theme of the conference is “The SME Ecology of Transforming Economies: Knowledge Creation, Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Economic Growth.” Panel Proposals are due March 31, 2016. For detail, see the Call For Proposals.
The Journal of Management is calling for contributions to a special issue on “Managing in the Age of Disruption” The editors are
Shahzad (Shaz) Ansari, University of Cambridge, UK
Raghu Garud, Pennsylvania State University, USA
Arun Kumaraswamy, West Chester University of Pennsylvania, USA.
Deadline for Submission: 16. December 2016. Details
The economic history profession has lost one of its most original, creative, and wide-ranging minds in the passing of Nathan Rosenberg on Aug. 24, 2015. Rosenberg was one of the founding fathers of Cliometrics, a member of the first group of Cliometricians that with coining the term “congregated at Purdue University in the late 1960s, and which included other luminaries among them Lance Davis, Jonathan Hughes, and Stanley Reiter (who is widely credited Cliometrics”).
We reported earlier on a conference bringing together business historians and evolutionary economic in Dublin. A set of papers that have grown out of the conference are not appearing as a special issue in the journal “Business History.” The contributors are: Michael Jacobides, Franco Malerba & Luigi Orsenigo, Johann Peter Murmann, Richard Nelson Ray Stokes & Ralf Banken, Steven Toms, Nick Wilson & Mike Wright, and Jim Quinn. You can find the papers and links for downloading here: Special Issue Papers
Sid Winter just won the 2015 Global Award for Entrepreneurship Research for “his deep empirical understanding of Schumpeterian processes of dynamic competition, generation of differential technological opportunities through appropriability conditions and the mechanisms driving dynamic capabilities in firms.” Full story. New: Winter’s Prize Lecture now available for download.
Management Organization Review has a new editor: Arie Lewin. Professor Lewin has many plans for taking the journal to the next level. One of them is to hold an annual conference to explore new ideas. MOR will hold its first Frontiers Conference “Globalization of Knowledge Creation and Innovation in the Context of Emerging Economies” in Honk Kong Dec 4-7, 20214. Here is the call for your participation.
We are all very sad that Steve passed away (See CMU obituary). Seven Klepper supported one of the senior scholars supporting the creation of economic-eovlution.net from the very beginning. On March 23, there was at event as part of the 20th anniversary of the CCC to honor Steve. He was able to attend the day and you can watch the tributes that were made about it exemplary contributions. Honoring Steve Klepper Video.
Your editor is traveling to China. The goal of the visit is to get a deeper understanding of what the future of China will likely look like. More specifically, the purpose is to become more knowledgeable about whether China will become the world leader in high-tech industries and if so how. Read his “Letters from China.”
The Mack Center for Technological Innovation at the Wharton School will put on for the 2nd time a new week-long workshop for emerging scholars in the field. The workshop is designed for scholars ranging from students who are completing the second year of doctoral studies to those who have recently completed a doctorate. Participants will learn from leading scholars in the field. The program will consist of a mix of seminar discussion and short presentations by participants reflecting their research interests and reactions to the seminar discussions. The program will begin on Sunday, June 23rd and end on Friday June 28th. Each day will consist of a three hour workshop lead by an individual faculty member on the indicated theme, followed by broader group discussion. Deadline for application Feb 15, 2013. More details here.
The new volume of “Advances in Strategic Management” entitled “History and Strategy” is focused on bringing about stronger integration of history in strategy research. Edited by Steven Kahl, Brian Silverman, and Michael Cusumano, the book contains 10 articles that sketch how this deeper integration could come about. If you university library subscribes to Emerald, you can download the chapters from the Table of Contents.
The 9th Atlanta Competitive Advantage Conference had a panel to celebrate the publication of Nelson and Winter’s 1982 landmark book. The panel included Sid Winter, Connie Helfat, L.G.Thomas III, and Johann Peter Murmann. The slides from the panelists are here: Helfat’s Presentation Slides
Murmann’s Presentation Slides
Thomas’s Presentation Slides
From the vault: Winter on Nelson (2000)
Nelson on Winter (2003)
Johann Peter Murmann has published an inductive case study entitled Coevolution of Industries and Important Features of Their Environments. Using a comparative historical method and drawing on evidence from five countries over a 60-year period, this paper spells out how coevolutionary processes work in shaping the evolution of industries and important features of their environments.Read the abstract and download paper here.
The Mack Center for Technological Innovation at the Wharton School will put on a new week-long workshop for emerging scholars in the field. The workshop is designed for scholars ranging from students who are completing the second year of doctoral studies to those who have recently completed a doctorate. Participants will learn from leading scholars in the field. The program will consist of a mix of seminar discussion and short presentations by participants reflecting their research interests and reactions to the seminar discussions. The program will begin on Sunday, June 24th and end on Friday June 29th. Each day will consist of a three hour workshop lead by an individual faculty member on the indicated theme, followed by broader group discussion. Deadline for application Feb1, 2012. More details here.
In 2007, Steve Jobs and Bill Gates appeared for a joint interview at the Wall Street Journal “All Things Digital Conference.” The provide fascinating insights into the strategic thought of tow chief protagonists of the PC revolution in computing. Watch them here.
Evolutionists predict that firm failures rates are high. I have reported failure rates ranging from 61 to 88% for the synthetic dye industry in different countries (Murmann & Homburg, 2001). 75% percent of all new ventures are often reported without reference to the underlying data. Here is some data on venture backed firms, that means firms that are seen as very promising.
A recent, large-scale study by William Sahlman, an advisor at several large venture capital firms and a Harvard Business School professor of Entrepreneurial Management, reveals that the failure rate of professional venture firms over the past 15 years has been around 60%, up from 35% in the 1980s. In other words, more high-potential ventures fail than succeed. The good news, says Sahlman, is that the economy and culture of the United States encourage entrepreneurial risk-taking. Failure doesn’t mean “Game over.” It means “Try again, with experience.”
From Bigthink
The product development at Saturday Night Life is perfectly consistent with the evolutionary predictions: Through out the week, that writing team comes up with about 800 jokes. On Friday night, they sit together and whittle it all the way down to the 100 jokes they like best, and out of that 100 the producer picks about 30. And out of that 30—- of the initial 800 jokes written during the week—- only about 16 or 20 jokes make it to a Saturday Night Live broadcast.